Economic Expectations Revealed in the October Survey Conducted by TCMB
Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB), 72 representatives from the real and financial sectors along with professionals participated in the October Market Participants Survey and published the results. According to the survey, the expected inflation rate (CPI) for October, which was 2.24% last month, increased to 2.39% in this survey period. The year-end CPI inflation expectation rose from 43.14% to 44.11%. Expectations for CPI increase in the next 12 months decreased from 27.49% to 27.44%, and for the next 24 months, it dropped from 18.38% to 18.08%.
Exchange Rate Expectations and Current Account Deficit Projections
Participants’ year-end USD/TRY expectation decreased from 37.1599 to 36.6347, while the 12-month USD/TRY expectation increased from 42.4274 to 42.7340. The year-end current account deficit expectation, which was $22.2 billion in the previous survey period, dropped to $20.2 billion in this period. The current account deficit expectation for the next year also decreased to $23.7 billion. The policy rate expectation at the end of the current month is 50%.
GDP Growth and Interest Rate Projections
The GDP growth expectation for the current year decreased from 3.2% to 3.1%, and for the next year, it dropped from 3.4% to 3.3%. TCMB’s policy rate expectation at the end of the current month is 50%, while the expectation for three months later decreased to 46.26%. The policy rate expectation for 12 months later also decreased from 31.66% to 31.64%.